homes sold year to date

The other day I took a gander at  my copy of The Prairie Shopper as put out by the Free Press News. As you’d expect, all the local real estate offices are running advertisements in it. Two companies each put out a highlight of what its company did to be #1. That’s their right and I’m 100% cool with that. What interests me is whether or not I agree with the posted statistics.

Ad #1:
Your odds are in Your Favor With Company X

  • Remax Top Properties (10 agents) 32
  • Century 21 Coleman-Hornsby (21 agents) 18
  • Coldwell Banker Honig-Bell (23 agents) 18
  • Advantage Realty (12 agents) 18
  • Total Number of Properties Sold *MLS All Properties Jan. 1-April 7, 2011

Ad #2
Real Estate By The Numbers… …Another Viewpoint Top Production By Sales

  • Advantage Realty, Inc. (with 6 Morris agents And 5 Coal City agents) $7,286,381
  • Re/Max Top Properties (with 9 agents) $4,299,801
  • Century 21 Coleman-Hornsby (with  19 Morris Agents And 5 Coal City Agents) $3,403,400
  • Coldwell Banker Honig-Bell (with 18 agents) $3,126,900
  • The data is based on ALL SALES in MRED from 1/1/11 – 3/25/11. MRED is the “Midwest Real Estate Data (MRED)” Agent Metrics System

I’m nothing in life, if not fair. I appreciate healthy competition between companies and have friends and colleagues at every one of the above listed companies that I respect. I will also continue to have friends and colleague’s at every one of the above listed companies after posting statistics as I see them and a viewpoint of what it all means. The Multiple Listing Service (Midwest Real Estate Data or MRED) allows us all access to the information claimed. It also allows us to check more than 85 or 98 days.

What I see in looking at 1/1/2011 to 3/25/2011 (ALL property types closed) is such:

Ad #2 is 100% accurate. The numbers are legit across the board. That’s how those sales numbers look. Here are what the completed sales numbers look like over the same time frame:

  • Re/Max Top Properties- 32
  • Century 21 Coleman-Hornsby 25
  • Coldwell Banker Honig-Bell 25
  • Advantage Realty 23

…So while the dollars are looking great and better than the competition (heavily influenced by two land deals accounting for more than 3 million total dollars), the actual amount of properties sold is the fewest of the 4 companies given.

Now, Ad #1 is a bit of a different animal. It is a different in that the number aren’t depicted as accurately as I think they should be. Total number of properties sold is a bit of a silly statistic in that you completely discount the ability to sell one’s own listings, relying on other companies to do it for you. The MLS looks at each side of a sale (listing side and selling side) individually. So each sale has 2 sides, really: a listing sold and a buyer side sold. In looking at it like that, the numbers look like this:

  • Re/Max Top Properties 37
  • Century 21 Coleman-Hornsby 29
  • Coldwell Banker Honig-Bell 28
  • Advantage Realty 28

….And now, here’s the rub: None of this means anything! Each company depicting statistics is doing so for a sample size of fewer than 100 days. First quarter numbers are fine, but they don’t tell a story about company success. You want a story about statistics, check back tomorrow to see the numbers for the last year.

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Every month in my newsletter I look at a particular statistic. This month I took a peek at year-to-date numbers. In addition to County-wide stats, I went more in-depth with particular areas. These numbers are for single family homes from January 1 to November 30 for each of these particular years. And please keep in mind that rising and falling median home prices DO NOT reflect your home’s value raising and dipping but merely that the mix of homes that is selling goes up or down.

You’ll see areas that are up and down like Bolingbrook where 2009 saw more sales and now another dip, but there’s also the opposite where 2009 dipped but this year bounces back up (Lockport). For the most part, however, the number of sales in 2010 are down from this time last year. I’ve indicated the change for the current year’s sales volume only (and remember, that’s just number sold- nothing to do with the median value). Of the areas looked at, only Morris (slightly) and Lockport (a lot)  have improved.

Grundy County
2010: 327 sold/ $164,900 median sales price (-3.9%)
2009: 340 sold/ $169,500 median sales price
2008: 342 sold/ $191,000 median sales price

Will County
2010: 4,142 sold/ $191,000 median sales price (-6.3%)
2009: 4,406 sold/ $195,000 median sales price
2008: 4,348 sold/ $230,000 median sales price

Coal City/ Diamond/ Carbon Hill
2010: 58 sold/ $162,450 median sales price (-37.9%)
2009: 80 sold/ $172,000 median sales price
2008: 76 sold/ $182,450 median sales price

Morris
2010: 136 sold/ $177,450 median sales price (+1.5%)
2009: 134 sold/ $160,500 median sales price
2008: 145 sold/ $207,000 median sales price

Wilmington
2010: 62 sold/ $127,500 median sales price (-25.8%)
2009: 78 sold/ $140,000 median sales price
2008: 80 sold/ $128,000 median sales price

Braidwood/ Godley/ Braceville
2010: 56 sold/ $143,250 median sales price (-1.8%)
2009: 57 sold/ $124,900 median sales price
2008: 62 sold/ $152,000 median sales price

Bolingbrook
2010: 429 sold/ $184,800 median sales price (-14.2%)
2009: 490 sold/ $184,950 median sales price
2008: 385 sold/ $231,000 median sales price

Lockport
2010: 223 sold/ $190,000 median sales price (+23.3%)
2009: 171 sold/ $200,000 median sales price
2008: 203 sold/ $219,000 median sales price

Romeoville
2010: 268 sold/ $149,900 median sales price (-11.2%)
2009: 298 sold/ $155,000 median sales price
2008: 256 sold/ $190,000 median sales price

(Did I leave your town out? Want to know about an area that I didn’t cover? Just ask! I’d be more than happy to run the numbers and send you a report.) The next time someone’s telling you how bad the market is or how much it’s rebounding….you can throw numbers at them and really impress them!

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